Archive for April, 2009

5-Star Stocks Poised to Pop: Harry Winston

Monday, April 27th, 2009

By Brian D. Pacampara


Motley Fool

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 130,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool’s free investing community, Canadian diamond miner and retailer Harry Winston Diamond (NYSE: HWD) has earned a coveted five-star ranking.

With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at Harry Winston’s business, and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

Harry Winston facts:

Headquarters (founded)Toronto, Canada (1980)Market Cap$322.1 millionIndustryPrecious Metals and MineralsTTM Revenue$609.22 millionManagementCEO Robert Gannicott (since 1999)CFO Alan Mayne (since 2008)Return on Equity (average, last three years)17.6%Dividend Yield4.8%CompetitorsBHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP)De Beers Consolidated MinesCAPS members bullish on HWD also bullish on:General Electric (NYSE: GE)Vale (NYSE: RIO)Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX)CAPS members bearish on HWD also bearish on:US Airways (NYSE: LCC)General Motors (NYSE: GM)
Sources: Capital IQ (a division of Standard & Poor’s), and Motley Fool CAPS. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Over on CAPS, 117 of the 118 All-Stars members who have rated Harry Winston — or 99% — believe the stock will outperform the S&P 500 going forward. These bulls include starrider78 and Pumpstick.

Last week, starrider78 noted that Harry Winston “owns 40% of the Diavik mine, with right of first refusal on the rest of the mine.” Our CAPS member concludes: “When the economy picks back up, this stock will rocket. They are heavily dependent on Forex at the moment, but that will change as the economy improves.”

In a pitch from January, Pumpstick tapped the valuation (which is even cheaper today) as a bargain hunter’s best friend:

Diamonds are forever (TM) but not at this price!Some luxury goods will not suffer as much as others during a recession. Harry Winston is a brand with a long history. Harry Winston has a great reputation known for quality and exclusivity and is the ultimate of diamond design.

There will always be costumers for their jewelry, and there will be a growing demand in China, Russia and the Middle East….

This stock has been beaten down way too much. Their earnings are exceeding expectations. They have a relative low amount of debt, and are trading way below intrinsic value.
What do you think about Harry Winston Diamond, or any other stock for that matter? Make your voice heard on Motley Fool CAPS today. More than 130,000 investors are waiting to hear what you have to say. CAPS is 100% free, so simply click here to get started.

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Vol. 8.4 Bonded Diamonds: Diamonds for the “Conceptual Age”

Sunday, April 12th, 2009

It’s April 7th, 10:40AM. Good morning or good _________(fill in the blank) wherever you are right now in the future. I say future because as I write this newsletter, it dawned on me that these words will not be received, heard, or read until sometime in the future, if ever! But I’ll press on anyway.

We do this all the time—talk, write, create, destroy hoping and praying to be noticed; hoping to be heard. When others give us compliments, we feel good; ignored we feel bad. Why do we give that power to others, the ability to affect us? Employed we have self-worth. Lose our jobs, we feel worthless. Why is our happiness dependent on others? How well do you treat yourself? You can be kind to yourself, you know? Some people say “I’ve been really beating myself up over ________ (fill in the blank). Really? Beating yourself up? Worrying? Complaining? As Doctor Phil would say, “How’s that working for you?” The solutions may be found in the new “Conceptual Age”.


The “Conceptual Age” is defined as an era of creativity, innovation and design. As Daniel Pink says in his book, The Whole New Mind,“Answers need more problems!” That’s what the “Conceptual Age” represents! It’s about being able to see the book, not just as a source of knowledge, but as a paperweight, a source of energy (burn it to stay warm), a hat, a bullet-proof vest or even a door stop. We need our answers to solve more problems. We need to see the book as more than just a book. A diamond can no longer be just a diamond—not in this day and age. We expect more from things. A toaster can’t just be a toaster! Any toaster can do that! It has to be a thing of beauty! Heck, it spends 99% of its time just sitting around doing nothing. It might as well look beautiful while it sits on your counter top! If you can’t see a toaster as art and art as toaster, you haven’t joined the “Conceptual Age”. You are still stuck in the “Information Age”, where everything was safe and linear. A problem had one solution. Very, very safe. Don’t want to get hit? Stop moving! Want to be safe? Be perfectly still! Quite the paradox. Static was the old safe. Momentum, frequency, vibration, sound, harmony and symphony are the new. Creating chaos to find order and center. This is the new reality. Our “Conceptual Age” fully bonded diamond now is beauty, durability, symmetry, meaning, value, story, safe haven, flexibility, liquidity, nest egg, college fund, retirement fund, rainy day fund, get-out-of-jail-free card, life saver, new car, new job, starting over, upgrade, downgrade, save a life, define a life, make a life, and more. Now quite simply a fully bonded diamond isn’t just carbon from the earth. A fully bonded diamond doesn’t just make a connection; it defines it. It expands it! It grows with you. It goes with you! It is a part of you! A fully bonded diamond, like true love, doesn’t come with rules, regulations, or limits! It is endless, indefinable, and unpredictable—it flows! Any diamond can take you from A to B. That’s yesterday’s Newtonian diamond. Only a fully bonded diamond can take you anywhere you want to go!


Yesterday’s diamond could only be a diamond—one that depreciated with time like a used car. Today’s fully bonded diamond is ready to be whatever you want it to be. As time goes by, maybe it will be a bigger diamond, or maybe you will transform it into a down payment on your dream home! Only a fully bonded diamond can be anything you want it to be because it is the only diamond in the world that is liquid!


Anybody can own a diamond. Not everyone can own the future!


P.S. Remember, “you are the master of your fate; the captain of your soul.” Invictus by William Ernest Henley.


by Fred Cuellar, author of the best-selling book “How to Buy a Diamond.” More questions? Ask the Diamond Guy®

Across the Great Divide

Wednesday, April 8th, 2009

By Donna Carter

19-year-old Emily thanked me, as she handed back a few pages she had filled with her answers to my questions. “That was empowering!” she said.

 

It was similar to a majority of the responses I got from the 18-22 year olds to whom I had asked to give me their opinions about Life, Love, Beliefs, and the American Dream. Some of them wanted to talk, others preferred to write down their answers.  All of them had something to say. All I did was give them a chance to be heard.

 

“Empowering,” “Thought-provoking,” “Deeper than Expected,” “Thank you!” were all responses I got. They appreciated the opportunity to speak their minds.

 

It gave me pause. How many, my age and older, have simply written them off, completely unable to understand where they’re coming from, or what they are looking for? Based on appearances, the ‘music’ they listen to, or the manner in which they communicate, how many of us have turned a blind eye, and a deaf ear to the next generation?

I was at the mall Sunday afternoon, waiting my turn at the sales counter. Ahead of me were two teenage girls, also waiting. I watched as another attendant arrived at the counter, and although the girls reached forward with their receipt in hand to be assisted, the attendant served the woman behind them.

 

The girls’ frustration was evident – and not without reason. I commiserated that it wasn’t fair, and it appeared that the attendants were overlooking them. The only reason I could see was the age factor.        The girls waited: polite, but frustrated.

 

“They don’t seem to have enough attendants,” I said, opening up a conversation with them.

 

 

“We’re just here to pick up a pre-purchase for my mom!” one of the girls replied with a bit of exasperation, but not whining,  “Just pick it up… That’s all.  We were here before anyone else was. We were on the other side and the attendant said we had to come over here, and then she went over to help that other woman first… and then this one… ” they indicated the woman who was presently being assisted.

 

“That doesn’t seem very fair,” I acknowledged. “You are just as much a customer as any of us. I’m sorry they haven’t helped you yet.”

 

The first attendant finished with her customer, and she turned to serve me.  The girls and I were far apart enough to obviously not be together, and they had been there long before I arrived.

 

I tilted my head toward the two girls, “They were ahead of me,” I said. The girls were surprised and thankful, handing her their receipt. The attendant helped them, and they were on their way.

 

It made me wonder about other things the generations behind us have to deal with coming from the adult world they are growing into.  Here they are, on the cusp of adulthood, learning where they are in the world – what they believe, what they hope, what they dream – and attempting to see these things in light of the reality around them. It is no wonder their responses to my questions were often jaded.

 

I saw considerable thought and frustration coming off of every written page returned to me.  The American Dream, they said, was pie in the sky. An unrealistic fantasy. Nice to think about, do what you can to achieve it (or your own personal version of it) but don’t expect it to bring happiness.

 

Happiness, for the most part, came from their families and friends, and time spent with people -  doing things together, making other people happy, and being productive. Listening to music gave them joy – and escape.

 

“It doesn’t have to be something big” one girl said.  Others agreed: hot chocolate, a friend’s face, a smile, a good book, dancing, were added to the ongoing list, amid nods and laughter.

 

Talk of happiness morphed into love, which was defined as a feeling – a sentiment that varied according to whom it was applied: Parent/Child, Significant Other, Friends, Pets, objects… but “True Love” was unconditional, and required commitment, mutual respect, patience, and understanding.  Lauren (21) wrote, “I want someone who loves every part of me – flaws included – but can also guide me and give me constructive criticism when I need it, and can accept that same love and guidance from me.” Everyone agreed with Michael (19) who said that love “feels damn good,” and that it was best when reciprocated.

 

Spiritually, their beliefs range all over the map. For some, God was the ultimate reason for their existence and there were no answers without God being a part of that answer or being the answer altogether. For some, God was not a part of their picture at all. Life was life – you live, you die.  God either didn’t exist, or simply didn’t matter. For the majority, however, their beliefs were more amorphous in nature:  God was not what is taught in church or parochial schools. God was more a spiritual force than a religious being: An higher power – the essence of life, and a very real and important part of their lives.

 

Their dreams focused on education and job opportunities, laced with some frustration about the economy making the situation almost impossible on all fronts.  They are struggling, attempting to find ways to follow their dreams, but feeling lost and alone.  “Life will be what I make of it.”  “I don’t expect it to be easy”

 

All of them feel they’re being left a pretty big mess to deal with on every level, and yet they want to see the world become a better place. Most of them agreed that simply being more unselfish, and genuinely caring about others and their environment would help immeasurably – but despite their willingness to do their part, almost to the last one, they felt that no one else was willing to pitch in alongside them. They know that the single drop from their efforts to improve things will never fill the parched void of their world that so desperately needs to be saturated with positive change.

 

“It can’t be done alone!” They said, “I can only do my part!” “It’s impossible!” “Only God can change things!”

 

My thoughts are drawn back to the two girls at the sales counter. Surprised and thankful. How sad that it surprised them that someone would care to extend them some common courtesy.

 

The next generation is not angry, way underneath it all. They are frustrated. They are having to fight to be heard, so their voices have become harsh and brash and angry to break through that silent barrier – the blind eye, the deaf ear – the barrier that we – not they - have erected between us.

 

They’re clawing at that wall. It’s a lot easier for us: We only have to reach through and grab their hand to breach the gap.

Ten Things To Buy Before The Economy Improves

Friday, April 3rd, 2009

By: Daniel Indiviglio (Forbes)

Washington, D.C. – Sadly, someday this recession is going to end.

After 17 months of steep decline, both the president’s Council of Economic Advisors and the Federal Reserve now believe the economy will begin to recover sometime in 2009.

Great news, to be sure. But it’s also a warning to consumers: The deals you’re seeing on everything from houses and cars to televisions and furniture won’t last forever. Luckily, for a host of goods and services, the sale of the century (literally) is still on.

The reason is simple: no buyers. Personal savings in 2008 were nearly six times greater than in 2005, amounting to $191 billion or 1.8% of the nation’s disposable income. In 2009, annualized savings for January and February exceeded $450 billion, or more than 4% of disposable income.

For those feeling bold enough to bargain shop, opportunities abound. Some deals, like housing and automobiles, might be obvious, but others, like diamonds, might not be.

Big Ticket Items


At the top of the list: housing. This may be the best time in a generation to buy a home. According to the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, fourth-quarter 2008 prices were down 25% from the four quarter of 2006. The stimulus bill Congress passed in February includes an $8,000 credit for first-time home buyers. According to bankrate.com, average interest rates are beginning to dip below 5% for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage.

More good news for consumers: Automakers had a miserable 2008. Auto demand is down by approximately 33% since October and dealers have excess inventory backing up and bills coming due. It’s a good time to buy.

Incentives from manufacturers have “probably never been as strong as they are today,” says John McEleney, a multi-franchise auto dealer and chairman of the National Auto Dealers Association. If you’ve got good credit, you can expect 0% financing and cash rebates as high as $6,000.

Another deal? Diamonds. Anyone in the market for a something sparkly will find prices down 14%, on average, since their highs in mid-2008, according to Ken Gassman of the Jewelry Research Institute. Gassman says more expensive diamonds have seen even greater drops. A pristine 4-carat diamond that went for $70,000 per carat is now selling for $51,700 per carat–a 26% discount.

Consumer Goods


Each year it seems like TVs get cheaper and cheaper, but this year those decreases are starting to make larger flat-panel TVs far more affordable. The radio/television category in February’s Consumer Price Index was down 9% from a year ago as more manufacturers get into the flat-panel business, driving prices down.

Same thing for furniture. The Consumer Price Index shows prices fell 2.4% since August, but even bigger bargains are out there. With fewer people buying houses, fewer shoppers are filling them. Jim Sluzewski, a spokesman for Macy’s, says demand has noticeably decreased over the past year. Retailers have excess inventory, leading to lower prices and better deals for consumers.

Women’s fashion is also an interesting story. Right now there is no dominant fashion trend in women’s apparel, according to Jeffrey Klinefelter, senior research analyst on the Piper Jaffray consumer team.

Women have been taking greater advantage of lower-cost clothing retailers like Forever 21 and Target, not feeling the need to spend more on expensive outfits. This allows the lower-cost chains to reduce their prices through production cost savings and requires the higher-cost chains and designers to cut prices on their excess inventory in response to lower demand.

So if you’re ready to spend a little, now’s the time. Bargains are out there–for as long as the downturn holds.

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